Florida’s ballot, and a Senate majority that is in play but not assured.

Book closing is October 5. The general election is November 3. Nationally, polls and markets put Senate control roughly even to slightly favored for Democrats — if they hold narrow leads in states that usually vote Republican.

Florida key dates

Book closing / registration deadline: Monday, October 5, 2026 (online, by mail postmarked, or in person).
Vote-by-mail request deadline: Thursday, October 22, 2026, by 5:00 p.m. No excuse is required.
Early voting: set by each county Supervisor of Elections, generally in the 10 days before Election Day. Confirm hours locally.
General Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Polls open 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
Photo and signature ID is required at the polls. A Florida driver license, Florida ID card, U.S. passport, military ID, student ID, or certain other photo IDs with a signature are accepted.

Official sources: Register to Vote Florida · County Supervisors of Elections · Florida Division of Elections

What is on the Florida ballot

Offices on the November 3, 2026 ballot include Governor and Cabinet, a U.S. Senate special election, U.S. House seats, half of the Florida Senate, all Florida House seats, appellate and Supreme Court retention, and local offices and measures. Sample ballots are posted by each county Supervisor of Elections.

Governor: Byron Donalds (Republican), David Jolly (Democratic), Scott Jewett (Libertarian), and no-party candidates including Dean Abrams and Charles Burkett.
U.S. Senate (special): Ashley B. Moody (Republican, incumbent), Angela Nixon (Democratic), Neil Gillespie (no party affiliation).

Confirm the final certified list with the Division of Elections before you vote. This page is a voter guide, not a candidate endorsement.

Why these races matter to AXJ cases

Clerks of Court control recording, docket access, and certified copies used in foreclosure and probate files.
Circuit and county judges hear foreclosure, eviction, guardianship, and probate. Appellate judges and Supreme Court justices appear on a yes-or-no retention ballot.
State Attorney and Public Defender decide which property, elder-abuse, and notary cases are prosecuted.
Sheriff executes writs of possession.
Property Appraiser and Tax Collector affect homestead, title, and tax-deed disputes.

How to check your own ballot

Look up your registration at registration.elections.myflorida.com.
Open your county Supervisor of Elections site and download the sample ballot.
For judicial retention, read the merit-retention information published by the Florida Bar and the Division of Elections before you mark yes or no.
If a mailed ballot is rejected for a signature mismatch, Florida law gives you a chance to cure it. Watch the deadline on the cure form.

Why the U.S. Senate is in play

Republicans are defending more seats — about 22 of the 35 up, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. The national environment has shifted toward Democrats amid low presidential approval, tied in reporting to the Iran conflict and higher gas prices.

The House is widely seen as more likely to flip. The Senate was long viewed as harder, but ratings and markets have moved.

Recent indicators

Prediction markets in mid-September priced Democrats at roughly 52–59% to win Senate control, up from a Republican edge earlier in the year.
A model updated October 4 gave Democrats about a 58% chance of reaching 51 or more seats.
New York Times/Siena polls in late September–early October showed Democratic candidates ahead or essentially tied in several states Trump won by double digits in 2024: Texas (James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton), Alaska (Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan), Ohio special (Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted), Kansas (even), and Iowa (Republican edge of about 1 point in that survey). Other polls have shown similar patterns.
Cook Political Report and others rate North Carolina (Roy Cooper in an open seat) as leaning Democratic, with Georgia (Jon Ossoff) now likely Democratic. Toss-ups or near-toss-ups include Maine (Susan Collins), Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan (Democratic-held open seat). Kansas is lean Republican or toss-up depending on the rater.

The catch

Those red-state leads are narrow. No party has flipped multiple Senate seats in states the other party’s presidential nominee won by 11+ points in the prior election since 2008. Democrats must hold their own competitive seats — Michigan is the main risk; Georgia and New Hampshire look safer — while winning several of Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, or Kansas.

Handicappers such as those cited by the Los Angeles Times on October 4 still describe the chamber as on a knife’s edge, with a plausible Democratic gain of roughly three to five seats.

Races that decide the Senate

State	Matchup	Read
North Carolina	Cooper (D) open seat	Lean D
Georgia	Ossoff (D)	Likely D
Maine	Jackson vs. Collins	Toss-up
Ohio special	Brown vs. Husted	Toss-up
Texas	Talarico vs. Paxton	Toss-up
Alaska	Peltola vs. Sullivan	Toss-up
Iowa	Turek vs. Hinson	Toss-up
Kansas	Hamilton vs. Marshall	Lean R / toss-up
Michigan	Democratic open seat	Toss-up
Florida special	Moody vs. Nixon	Defended R

Ratings are a synthesis of Cook and related early-October reporting, not a single official map. Florida’s special is one of the seats Republicans are defending; it is not rated here as a toss-up.

Bottom line

A Democratic Senate is possible and, on current polls and markets, roughly even to slightly favored — but it depends on holding narrow leads in states that usually vote Republican.

Send AXJ an election complaint

If you were blocked from voting, a clerk or court file related to an election case disappeared, or a judicial candidate’s financial disclosures do not match the public record, send the documents.

Email Alice at alicemariebruce@gmail.com and Ed at Ed@axj.com. Include the county, precinct or case number, and copies, not originals.

Related: Foreclosures · Guardianship · Cases · Complaints

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